Breakup

Impossible events? Not so, says Lansing Lamont in this convincing depiction of why and how peaceful and decent Canada is likely to break up over the next ten years. As French-speaking Quebec considers independence, the author warns that such a move would be only the first stage in a painful and tragic unraveling of Canada.

In vivid and plausible future scenarios, he shows that the political and economic implications are enormous, not just for Canadians but for Americans, who have long taken their northern neighbor - their largest trading partner and strategic shield - for granted.

The author, a former chief Canada correspondent for Time magazine, has known the country intimately for over twenty-five years, and spent a year of intensive travel and research in writing this book. In his timely and eminently readable narrative, he describes the "anger beneath the smiling land" that is driving Canadians apart.

When, in October 1992, the country failed to pass a second constitutional referendum, Canada, he says, lost its "last chance to save itself." The French-speaking Quebecois have obtained the economic confidence as well as the cultural conviction to achieve separation, and English-speaking Canada seems unwilling or unable to stop them. The sad result: the dissolution of the country the United Nations ranked number one in 1992 in terms of economic prosperity and quality of life.

. In a historical chapter the author shows how Canada's unity has long been tested by its sharp regional differences and the economic and cultural power of the United States. More recently the country has been strained by the land claims of its native peoples and economic problems that threaten its vaunted universal health care system. Its aggressive commitment to multiculturalism, Lamont points out, is a further step in the disintegrative process.

In the second half of the book Lamont lays out plausible, detailed scenarios for Canada to the year 2002. It is a vision of failed unity talks, disputes over division of assets and debts, separation by Quebec, hostility and violence, and, ultimately, economic decline.

With the idea of Canada shattered, the English speaking provinces devolve into regional power centers, which, along with the Maritime provinces cut off from the rest by Quebec, consider forming protective alliances or, eventually, joining the United States. Lamont's book is a wake-up call to a country in mortal danger. It is also an elegy to a country he loves but one against which he fears the tides of history are turning.